July, 2003

The Geopolitical Consequences of the U.S. Occupation of Iraq

Khaled Abdel-Azim

The policies of the US administration in Iraq following the invasion indicate that its primary preoccupation is economic rather than political. The new system in Iraq will be essentially an Anglo-American protectorate under which US, British and Israeli capital will flourish with the security provided by US military bases. The democratic political system to be created is intended to serve as an enticing model to other countries in the area - one where interests take precedence over principles. Iraq will no longer function as an Arab nationalist military power protecting the eastern gate of the Arab world. It will become a demilitarised country, with a US-type liberal system that will allow multinational corporations to flourish without state intervention. The Iraqi state will essentially be in the service of the large investments that are to flow into Iraq, and the role of democracy will be to ensure peaceful coexistence between the various parties on the domestic scene without recourse to the use of oppressive measures. At the same time, this democratic system is required to ensure the cooperation of all Iraqi classes with the large foreign economic presence.

Developments in the region indicate that trade agreements, gas and oil pipelines, and the creation of roads will be the primary tools of shaping foreign policy in the Middle East in the near future. The allocation of Iraqi oil - the second largest reserve in the world after Saudi Arabia - as well as the means and paths of transporting this oil will have a decisive impact on redrawing the region's strategic map. Oil plays a central role in the US strategy to neutralise the looming threat from China - which is anticipated to become the largest economy in the world by 2025, and which will need to import 80% of its oil requirements. US control over the largest oil reserves on earth - the Middle East and the Caspian Sea - will allow it to deprive China of these resources. Iraq is the geographic centre of the circle that extends from the Saudi Red Sea coast to the shores of the Caspian Sea in Central Asia. Maintaining bases in Iraq will allow the US to assert complete domination from the air over the Caspian Sea, and also to put pressure on Iran and Syria.

In economic terms, the fall of Iraq has created a wide space, rich with potential, extending from the centre of Iraq, through Jordan and on to Israel. Israel has wide access to the Mediterranean, while both Iraq and Jordan have practically no port facilities. Israel will therefore be the gateway for all imports and exports into the axis - Iraq, Jordan, Israel - that is to become the new economic heart of the Middle East. There have been several indications of US support for the emergence of this axis, including: the holding of the World Economic Forum in Jordan in June 2003; the plans for transporting water from the Red Sea into the Dead Sea as the cornerstone for larger regional projects between Jordan and Israel; and the increase of Israeli investment in the joint Jordanian-Israeli industrial projects in Aqaba.

One of the main foundations of this new axis is the plan to revive the oil pipeline between Mosul in Iraq and Haifa in Israel, which was established in 1931 by the British. This 1,000-kilometre long pipeline has been out of commission for decades as the result of the Arab-Israeli conflict. The Israeli government has recently announced that it has begun the feasibility studies, and that the section of this pipeline that runs through Israeli territory appears to be in good condition. Exporting Iraqi oil through Israel will significantly enhance its regional strategic importance, and will give Israel some leverage over Europe.

At the same time, it has been announced that oil exported from the south of Iraq will no longer pass through the pipelines going through Saudi Arabia to the Red Sea, and then by way of the Suez Canal to Europe. This oil is to be transported by tankers through the Arab Gulf. This indicates the US intention of marginalising both Saudi Arabia and Egypt and weakening their regional significance.

An important consequence of the US occupation of Iraq has been the lessening of Turkey's strategic importance from the US point of view, to the extent that plans to close down a US military base in Turkey have been announced. Relations between Turkey and the US reached a turning point when the Turkish parliament refused to allow deployment of US troops on Turkish soil in March 2003. For the first time in the history of secular Turkey, the powerful military refused to exert pressure on the Islamic majority in parliament in order to assist the US in its plans for invading Iraq.

This reflects the deep misgivings among even the Turkish military regarding US intentions in the area, especially pertaining to the establishment of a Kurdish state in northern Iraq, which would pose a serious threat to stability in southern Turkey.
Turkey's attempts to reassert its position in the area took the form of improving relations with both Syria and Iran. Turkish-Syrian cooperation began a few months before the US invasion of Iraq, when the Syrian chief of staff was invited to Ankara to sign an agreement providing for joint military training and cooperation in the field of defence industries. Relations were further strengthened after the fall of Baghdad through increasing trade levels, and Turkish trucks were allowed through Syrian borders.

Turkey also took steps to improve its relations with Iran, despite the crisis of December 2002 that resulted from Iran's refusal to consider Kadek - the political successor to the Kurdistan Workers' Party -PKK- - as a terrorist organisation. In April 2003, the two countries decided to overcome their differences and create a trade zone where customs tariffs are reduced on a large number of products. The Turkish-Iranian Business Council also met in Istanbul to discuss improving roads and transportation to facilitate trade, as well as exporting gas from Iran to Europe via Turkey.

Another significant regional project is the plan to establish a gas pipeline starting from Al-Arish in Egypt and continuing on to Syria and Turkey. Increasing ties between Egypt, Syria, Turkey and Iran would be an effective means to confront the gap left open on the eastern front of the Arab world through the fall of Iraq.