July, 2003

The Iraqi Opposition

Dr Amr Al-Shobki

The policies of the US in Iraq since the invasion reveal that its primary objectives are creating stability and eliminating the forces that oppose its presence. Although the US has declared its wish to establish a real democratic system, and has, in fact, supported the opposition and brought them back into Iraq, it has now become convinced that this opposition is incapable at this time of leading the country. The US has reached this conclusion as a result of conditions related to the structure of the Iraqi opposition, in addition to the problems involved in administering Iraq, and its plans for the Middle East as a whole.

Although the size of the Iraqi opposition has increased significantly since 1991, it is made up of a number of small and medium-sized organisations with different political, religious and ethnic backgrounds that are bound only by their wish to end the regime of Saddam Hussein and to gain an important political position under the new regime.

The largest Shia organisation in the opposition camp is the Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq -Sciri-, headed by Ayatollah Mohammad Baqir Al-Hakim and sponsored by Iran. There are grave concerns in Iraq regarding the political role of the Shia in view of their ideas on politics, their historical oppression by the Sunnis, as well as the implications of their link with Iran. Two major parties are vying for control in the northern areas that have been under Kurdish self-rule since 1991: the Kurdistan Democratic Party -KDP-, headed by Massoud Barzani, and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan -PUK-, led by Jalal Talabani.

The most prominent organisation in the opposition is the Iraqi National Congress -INC-, a coalition of a number of parties headed by Ahmed Chalabi. The congress has received sponsorship from the US which allowed it to launch a television station, Liberty TV, which broadcast from London last year, but was discontinued on 1 May of this year. Several Iraqi organisations, such as Sciri and Iraqi communist parties, have recently pulled out of the INC, somewhat weakening its position. The two main Kurdish parties still support the INC, but the most influential faction within it is that of the royal Hashemites. Sharif Ali bin Al-Hussein, a descendant of the Hashemite Iraqi royal family, is the INC spokesperson.

Former crown prince of Jordan Prince Al-Hassan's attendance at an opposition conference in London in December 2002, in the company of Chalabi, was considered a clear signal that the return of the monarchy may be an option in the new Iraq. There are reports that the US supports this option, which would act as an umbrella, transcending tribal and ideological differences. For now, though, efforts to promote Al-Hassan as the future monarch have not yet met with success, and are opposed by Sharif Ali, who considers himself the legitimate heir. This situation could cause a rift within the royalist camp.

The no-fly zones established in 1991 to protect the Kurds in the north and the Shia in the south have deepened the sense of sectarian division among the Iraqi opposition. Even relatively small minorities, such as the Assyrians, concentrated in Kurdish areas, and the Turkmen, concentrated in Kirkuk, are now making demands to receive special recognition. Great controversy broke out recently when the KDP proposed the establishment of an Iraqi federation dividing the Kurds from the Arabs.

The Kurds would like to add oil-rich Kirkuk and other areas to the ones currently under Kurdish self-rule. They propose to have a Kurdish flag and anthem and to instate Kurdish as the official language. There are, however, divisions within the Kurds, as bitter rivalry and competition have long existed between the two major parties. In 1996, Barzani was even accused of enlisting the help of Saddam Hussein's troops against the forces of his rival, Talabani.

Various components of the Iraqi opposition, including the INC, have begun to express their dissatisfaction with US policies in Iraq after the war. They feel the US has gone back on its promise to include them as partners in running the country during the transitional period. The US has come to realise that this opposition, which has been mainly based outside Iraq, has not been quickly able to establish a strong presence on the domestic scene, lacks leadership figures of national renown and is weakened by internal divisions. In view of the problems involved in administrating Iraq, as well as the armed resistance the US is still encountering, the US administration has come to the conclusion that the opposition cannot assume leadership at this point.

In the absence of a viable political class with a significant degree of support, the US has turned to enlisting the help of Iraqi administrators and technocrats, not only to run the affairs of the country, but also to play a political role. This decision will have negative consequences by depriving Iraq the opportunity to create a democratically elected political class with the imagination and capability to extract the country from this crisis. It will also undermine popular confidence in the new regime, as the same faces from the old regime remain. This was the case when the Americans reinstated the Baghdad chief of police, which provoked strong objections from the Iraqi people. These administrators are chosen primarily for their willingness and ability to follow orders, regardless of the nature of those who issue them. They will block all the forces of the opposition, those in alliance with the US and those who resist its continued presence in Iraq.

This aside, it seems that the US is reluctant to create an Iraqi political order until its plans for the region are well established. This is because it wants to bring to power a political elite that will espouse normalisation and regional cooperation with all Iraq's neighbours, including Israel, and integrate it firmly into the world market. The US understands that such an elite cannot find support among the Iraqi people as long as images of dead children, destroyed homes and assassinated political leaders continue to flow out of Palestine. Thus the US is pushing ahead to create a solution to the Palestinian problem in order to create appropriate regional conditions to establish the new Iraq. The new Iraq according to the US vision will have a democratic face, and will make a clean break with the practices of the old regime as well as the Arab ideologies and practices that have prevailed for the last 50 years. Until these conditions have been met, the US will shelve the political issue in Iraq. The Iraqi opposition, meanwhile, is likely to remain on the sidelines for some time to come.