July, 2003

The U.S. War on Iraq and the Consequences for the Arab System

Dr Mohammed Saad Abu Amoud

The US-led war on Iraq, and the subsequent US occupation of the country, has had significant consequences for the Arab system, which has been shown to be unable to provide security to its members. The crisis has made clear that the Arab countries prioritise their commitments to the international community over those made within the framework of the Arab regional system. And while this system thus appears to lack a substantial core, the Arabs have directed much criticism towards the Arab League, as if this organisation can be expected to be anything more than the sum of its parts, or to possess a form of sovereignty that its individual members lack.

The most dangerous of the consequences of the war are the state of frustration and the sense of weakness that prevail in the Arab political arena - feelings that must be changed immediately if the Arab nation is to face the challenges of the coming era. The war also increased the imbalance of power between the Arabs and Israel, which without a doubt will effect the nature of settlement between them.

The US handling of the Iraqi crisis was unprecedented, and there are no guarantees that such tactics will not be employed against other Arab countries. US threats against Syria provide ample proof of Washington's readiness to repeat the Iraqi scenario. Arab countries should thus mobilise to rearrange their internal status and make clear that the repetition of such a scenario is not only totally unacceptable, but, more to the point, detrimental to US strategic interests in the region.

Another negative consequence to the war has been the consideration of various regional projects to replace the Arab system, chief among which is a proposal made by Shimon Perez in the mid-1990s, hailed by the US.

The US has also outlined various visions of its own for the Middle East which indicate that it favours a rearrangement of the region in line with its own interests. Examples of this include the 'road map' for Arab-Israeli settlement, the establishment of a free trade zone between the US and the countries of the region, and the partnership for democracy initiative proposed by Secretary of State Colin Powell in September 2002. These visions effectively rule out the establishment of any independent Arab system able to express and protect Arab interests, which suggests there will be more US pressure in the coming period to dismantle the regional Arab system and substitute it with another one. The Arab countries, then, must work to defend their identities, which would be under threat if any of these regional projects were achieved.

Despite these negative consequences to the war on Iraq, there has been one important positive aspect: the Arab countries have acknowledged the need to reform the basis of the Arab system. The Arabs recognise that they must change their situation, and that future Arab policies should be based on common Arab work in accordance with new rules suited to the international environment and the nature of the challenges that the Arab countries are facing. This admission of the need for comprehensive reform - on the economic, political, social and cultural levels - is an important prelude to reform and development in the Arab world, and a number of Arab initiatives have already been proposed.

A Saudi proposal includes a call for internal reform and the development of political participation across the Arab world. The initiative rejects absolutely any foreign aggression against Arab countries, and includes a commitment to solve all problems peacefully. The Saudis also proposed the setting of a practical plan to create a free trade zone by 2005 as an introduction to the establishment of an common Arab market. This would boost the Arab private sector, attract Arab and international capital, and allow the Arabs to make full use of their human resources.

A proposal from Egypt to reform the Arab League complements the Saudi initiative as it would set up procedures that would help achieve the goals of the Saudis. Egypt proposes the establishment of an Arab security council to settle Arab disputes - with the power to impose sanctions on Arab countries that fail to implement its resolutions - as well as an Arab court of justice, the cancellation of the system of voting by consensus from all levels of the Arab League and the review of common Arab economic agreements, including the Arab free trade agreement, in order that they can be finalised and put into effect. Egypt also proposes the establishment of a small ministerial council to manage Arab affairs in between the rounds of the league council.

Secretary-general of the league Amr Moussa formed a committee to examine these and other proposals, and, in a conference held in Cairo in June 2003, invited numerous Arab intellectuals and experts to examine means of reforming the Arab League.

It should be noted here that excessive self-reproach is not helpful in this situation, but merely exacerbates the problem. The Arabs must consider the situation objectively, without exaggerating or underestimating their problems. What is important at this point is finding the appropriate means to overcome the current crisis.