April, 2003

Sudan: Peace Negotiations and the Situation in the South

Yassin Mohammed Abdullah

The Sudanese government and the Sudan People's Liberation Movement -SPLM- took unilateral positions in the negotiations on the future of the south of Sudan. While there was some consideration of the opposition National Democratic Alliance, there was no mention of other southern parties not present, although they are quite distinct from the SPLM. The agenda of the negotiations focused on the relation between the centre and south of Sudan without addressing any arrangements for the transitional era in the south itself. Some could see this as a justification for the separation of the south, and more dangerously this could lead to civil war in the region.

Since the foundation of the SPLM in 1983, it has been dominated by the Dinka tribe. The withdrawal of the Nuer and Shilluk tribes from the movement in 1991, due to a lack of internal democracy, increased the hegemony of the Dinka. The Nuer and Shilluk endorsed the call for self-determination in the south. This secession inside the SPLM triggered harsh battles between the Dinka and Nuer from 1991 to 1994, during which around 100,000 were killed and thousands of Dinka were displaced, leading to clashes with other southern tribes. There are several organisations that have separated from the SPLM and many groups that were not originally part of the movement. Most large and even medium-sized tribes have their own militias.

The imposed absence of the southern groups from the negotiating process raises a number of important issues that will determine the success or failure of any peace agreement. Battles in the west of the Upper Nile region in January 2002 are a case in point. Fighting between the SPLM and militias while negotiations were running in Kenya led to the suspension of proceedings for one day following a request from SPLM negotiators.

There is no justifiable reason for the exclusion of the southern groups from negotiations as they constitute an indispensable part of the south that cannot be overlooked. While the Dinka is the biggest tribe in the south, others also have power and enjoy privileges that even surpass those of the Dinka. The Nuer and Anuak tribes extend into Ethiopia, and they have previously made use of this in their conflict with the SPLM. The Madi, Asholi and Kakwa tribes stretch into Kenya, and other smaller tribes extend into the Central African Republic.

The internal status of the south is no less significant to the peace process than that of the three central regions of Abyei, Ingessana and the Nuba Mountains. If the peace agreement that is expected to be reached between the government and the SPLM in the coming months does not include a real commitment to apply democracy and enlarge the scope of participation in control over the south during the transitional era, civil war could easily erupt in the region. The future of the south would then rest in the hands of one organisation, or rather one tribe, in a society with a history of tribal conflict.