April, 2003

Passing the Banner in China

Dr. Mohammed Noman Galal

Both China's new president, Hu Jintao, and new prime minister, Wen Jiabao, were waiting for their time to come. Hu Jintao worked as vice president for former president Jiang Zemin for five years and was thus trained for state leadership. Similarly, Wen Jiabao worked for five years as vice prime minister for Zhu Rongji, which gave him the opportunity to gain vital experience. This highlights Chinese political and administrative intelligence, with future leaders primed for their posts early on within party ranks.

The philosophy of the Chinese system, culture and intellect is unique. When Mao Zedong felt that he was becoming old, he conceded much of his authority to the humble yet professionally qualified Zhou Enlai. Mao also voiced no objections to Zhou's successor, Deng Xiaoping, who likewise conceded power when he became old, this time to Jiang. When Jiang found himself in a similar position, he took the presidency of the Central Military Committee and gave the new generation a chance to lead China into the 21st century. Such genius and innovation is an authentic pattern and model that other countries could learn from.

The question now is whether China's new leaders will follow in the footsteps of their predecessors or instead pursue a new policy. And will they succeed in maintaining the unity, progress and stability of China or are they destined to a fate similar to that which befell the Soviet Union's Mikhail Gorbachev? While political forecasting is not easy in our fast-changing world, there are certain indicators that show what is most likely in the case of China:

1- The new leaders will not share the fate of Gorbachev, who came suddenly from outside central party ranks. China's leaders are the product of a steady rise through party bodies and institutions, which provides them with experience, knowledge and expertise.

2- Former Chinese leaders keep a watchful eye on developments. This was the case when Deng left office and to a certain extent when Jiang passed on his authority. The new generation of leaders works independently and freely, yet under the distant supervision of their predecessors.

3- Each leadership and each generation has to contend with different conditions; so while each is the product of accumulated experience, it also adds its own viewpoint. This explains the interest of Hu and Wen in the lower classes, and their efforts to visit villages and look at the concerns of dismissed labourers, the unemployed and small businessmen.

The expansion of the leadership of the Politburo Standing Committee from seven to nine members will make decision-making that much harder. The majority of these committee members were close to Jiang, which will guarantee some degree of continuity of previous thinking. This could also lead to differences, however, which, if they got out of hand, could be detrimental to the system.

Most important is that the new Chinese leaders, the rank and file of the Communist Party, intellectuals and society as a whole are aware of the importance of their country and civilisation in the context of world politics in the 21st century. They must carefully calculate the steps they take because the world is watching closely.