January, 2003

Road Map: A Reformulation of US Policy in the Middle East

Ahmed Sayyid Ahmed

The US-proposed Road Map plan is yet another in a series of initiatives intended to put an end to the Middle East dispute and break the vicious cycle of violence between Israel and the Palestinians. The plan follows the failure of the Mitchell Report and the Tenet Plan, both of which aimed to persuade the two sides to return to the negotiating table. The Road Map has been influenced of course by Washington's new policy in the Middle East and the US campaign against terrorism, and reflects the major shift that has taken place in the US stand towards Jerusalem, which Congress has declared should be a united capital.

It is a fact that the Middle East peace process has suffered a setback since President George W. Bush assumed power in 2001, and the concept of peace itself has changed within the framework of the new US administration. It is no longer fair and comprehensive settlement that will attain peace but rather gradual arrangements with the Palestinians, which would eventually lead to a long-term truce that would finally bring regional stability. This shift of tendencies is intended to re-draw the map of regional relations and realise tranquillity in accordance with US-Israeli concepts. This translates as oppressing the intifada, halting acts of violence and achieving a détente.

For the time being, the Palestinian issue has been superseded by that of Iraq on the US agenda. Some perceive that the US administration is seeking to defer the Palestinian question until after its intended war on Iraq and not to respond to the demands of Islamic hardliners who use what is going on in Palestinian territory as a pretext for attacking the United States.

The dominant military composition of the ruling elite in both the United States and Israel can be seen to have contributed to the US bias and its adoption of the Israeli viewpoint. Within the framework of US foreign policy making, lobbying power has shifted from the State Department to the department of defence, headed by Donald Ramsfield and his deputy Paul Wolfowitz. Accompanied by Vice President Richard Cheney and US national security adviser Condoleezza Rice from the White House, they have managed to direct the course of US foreign policy. In Israel, foreign policy making is governed by the trio of Sharon, Minister of Defence Shaul Mofaz and Foreign Minister Binyamin Netanyahu. However, Jewish power inside the United States, represented in the declared and undeclared role played by the Jewish lobby through its research centres, associations and committees, is one of the main reasons for the permanent US bias towards Israel.

A speech made by Bush on 24 June 2002 highlights the basis of the Road Map with regard to settlement of the Middle East dispute. The plan is divided into three main stages - October 2002 to May 2003, June 2003 to December 2003 and from 2004 to 2005 - and will be supervised by a committee formed of the United States, the European Union, Russia and the UN secretary-general.

The committee met on 20 December 2002 to discuss the plan, and it was decided to postpone work on it till after the Israeli elections on 28 January 2003. A statement issued following the meeting called for a stop to the violence and the withdrawal of Israeli forces to their pre-intifada positions. Bush reaffirmed his country's commitment to pursue the Road Map plan to peace in the Middle East.

The plan focuses on three main points: bringing violence to an end, Palestinian reform and political settlement.

The plan, however, in terms of its main elements, is no different in content from the Mitchell Report or the Tenet Plan, as they similarly tackle the provision of security, negotiations for gradual settlement and final status negotiations. The problem still lies in the obstacles encountered by each and every plan. The Tenet Plan for instance stipulated many procedures intended to provide security, which, although accepted by the Palestinians, was not adhered to by the Israelis. Likewise, the confidence-building measures of the Mitchell Report were implemented by the Palestinians while the Israelis violated the conditions.

The chief drawbacks of the Road Map are the non-stipulation of the two sides' mutual commitments, whose implementation depends on both sides working within definite deadlines, and the indefinite timetable set for its implementation, with the steps proposed for every stage lacking clear-cut arrangements. The plan also fails to take into consideration the developments taking place in the West Bank and Gaza as a result of the fierce war being waged by Sharon against the Palestinians.

Bush's speech mentioned the convention of two international conferences without giving adequate information about the participants, key items or targets. It might have been more beneficial to plan a conference that would seek ratification of the Road Map in its final form. At the same time, talk of a new international conference implies a move away from the Madrid formula and Security Council resolutions 242 and 338, and therefore opens the door for new resolutions that may in the end turn give Israel room for manoeuvring and procrastination.

What perhaps has been overlooked though in this and other plans is that the attainment of peace in the Middle East is really quite simple and straightforward. A total Israeli withdrawal from Palestinian lands, and the Palestinians' attainment of their legitimate rights, the first of which is the establishment of an independent state with Jerusalem as its capital, is the only formula that will ever be able to ensure the termination of violence in the region.