January, 2003

Palestinian Elections: Domestic and International Considerations

Said Okasha

On 22 December 2002, Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat announced that elections scheduled for 20 January 2003 would be postponed. His decision came following a report submitted by the advisory committee on elections, which argued that blockades, curfews and raids conducted by Israeli occupying forces would make holding the elections impossible.

This issue has been surrounded by heated debate on the domestic Palestinian level. The damage to the infrastructure of the Palestinian Authority -PA- after two years of Palestinian-Israeli confrontations poses a major problem to be dealt with. Some Palestinians feel that internal dialogue, such as that taking place between Hamas and the PA is a necessary prerequisite to both elections and reconstruction. Other groups feel it is first necessary to hold elections in order for the elected legislative assembly to be able to supervise the rebuilding process, especially in view of the issue of corruption. The assembly must also review the US and European peace proposals being presented at this time to pave the way for a settlement after the expected US attack on Iraq is over.

On the regional level, the states most involved in the Palestinian issue, such as Egypt and Saudi Arabia, do not seem to take these elections too seriously. There have even been reports in the Israeli press that Arab states would like Arafat removed from the scene, blaming him for bringing the whole region to the brink of war. If Arafat were returned to office with a large majority, he would thus be better able to resist Arab pressure against him to compromise.

On the international level, the United States and Europe have not displayed much interest in this issue, and appear more interested in Arafat's attendance of a conference organised by Britain -to be held in London in January 2003- to prepare the Palestinian scene for the new order following the US war on Iraq. In this respect, Britain rejected Israeli foreign minister Binyamin Netanyahu's argument, as expressed on 20 December 2002, that Arafat should be considered irrelevant and not a partner in the peace process.

It would have been in Arafat's interest to hold elections on time to bolster his political position for the following reasons:

- It would have exposed Israel as the force thwarting the democratic progress of the PA through the inhospitable environment within which it is forced to function.

- Arafat would be assured of being re-elected and emerging as the sole leader of the Palestinian people if elections were held now, as there is considerable disarray among Palestinian factions and none of them are able to present a viable candidate to oppose him.

- If Arafat had been re-elected with a strong majority, this would help him withstand regional and international pressure that is likely to intensify after the expected US war on Iraq, and would allow him to reach more acceptable compromise positions.