January, 2003

The Second Round in Machakos: Twisted Paths

Noura Abdel-Qader Hassan

The second and most recent phase of the negotiations over Sudan in Machakos, Kenya, was closed on 18 November 2002 with the signing of a new memorandum of understanding -MOU- on power sharing, and the extension of an earlier MOU on the cessation of hostilities and unimpeded aid access. Yet only partial progress was made in this round, with the final protocol addressing the crucial issues of power and wealth sharing not signed.

The second round of the Machakos process commenced on 12 August 2002 in an effort to advance what was achieved in the Machakos Protocol signed on 20 July 2002, which succeeded for the first time in bringing about an agreement on the issues of the right to self-determination and the separation of state and religion. However, this protocol only provided a platform upon which further negotiations could be undertaken. The agenda of the latest round was set to discuss the issues of power and wealth sharing between north and south, security arrangements, the geographic definition of the south and the modalities of a comprehensive ceasefire.

However, on 31 August, not long after the start of the peace talks, the Sudan People's Liberation Army -SPLA- attacked the strategic town of Torit, in southern Sudan, and, as a result, the Sudanese government negotiators pulled out of the talks. The government gave three main reasons for suspending negotiations. First, the Sudan People's Liberation Army/Movement -SPLA/M- had put forward a proposal for the creation of a federal union composed of one northern and one southern state, whereas the Machakos Protocol agreed in July had undertaken to maintain the unity of Sudan for at least a six-year interim period. Second, continuing disputes over the transition zones between north and south - namely the southern Blue Nile region, the Nuba Mountains region of south-central Kordofan, and Abyei in northern Bahr Al-Ghazal - had not been settled to the government's satisfaction. Third, the rebel negotiators had reopened the issue of the relationship between state and religion by introducing the concept of a sharia-free capital for Sudan. These were the stated reasons for the withdrawal of the Sudanese government from the negotiations, and with many underlying factors, Torit acted only as a trigger for their breakdown.

On 16 October, the government and the SPLA/M headed back to the negotiating table, following tremendous pressure from the international community, and specially the United States, which mobilised a 'carrot and stick' style of diplomacy. After resuming the talks, the two sides signed an MOU to cease hostilities while negotiations were going on.

The second phase of negotiations ended with the signing of an MOU between the government and the SPLA/M on aspects of government structures, including aspects of power sharing, the judiciary and human rights. The attendees also agreed to hold free and fair general elections during the interim period; to establish a bicameral national legislature with equitable representation for the people of the south in both legislative chambers; to ensure that the national civil service and cabinet ministries are representative of the people of Sudan; to hold a census during the interim period; to undertake a constitutional review; and to establish a government of national unity during the interim period. The parties also agreed to extend the MOU on the cessation of hostilities to 31 March 2003.

However, there are still serious obstacles to overcome with the crucial issues not yet resolved. These issues include: power sharing, the structure of governance, wealth-sharing arrangements, the status of the national capital, the composition of the national army, territorial divisions, and the situation in the Nuba Mountains, Funj and Abyei.

The next stage, therefore, scheduled to begin on 3 January 2003, must make substantial progress on the remaining issues or the process may collapse under the pressure of hard line attitudes and domestic politics.