October, 2002

Turkey Uncertain over War on Iraq

Beshir Abdel-Fattah

Turkey’s stance concerning the US campaign against Iraq is of great importance as a result of its prominent strategic and logistical role, as well as its considerable capabilities and experience in military interaction with Iraq. Turkey’s approval for, and hence participation in, a military attack on Iraq is linked to a number of considerations. Of major concern to Ankara is the possibility that the removal of the current regime in Baghdad could lead to the establishment of an independent Kurdish state in northern Iraq, and thus trigger domestic disturbances. There could also be enormous economic losses for Turkey, which would put further strain on the government, which is suffering from numerous political and economic problems.

Despite these factors, which make Turkish participation in a military strike a highly risky undertaking, Ankara still looks forward to some gains as a result of its approval to assist Washington. Turkey is still in dire need of US economic aid as well as diplomatic assistance to join the European Union.

The United States, for its part, hopes to depend on military and logistical assistance from Turkey in order to guarantee the success of its operation, and sees Turkey as the most strategic ally in this concern. Washington has thus made every effort to allay the fears of the Turks over the possibility of the establishment of a Kurdish state in northern Iraq, and to stress the advantages of Turkish involvement. Despite its apprehension, Ankara has no choice at the current time in light of its deteriorating financial and political situation but to stand by its ally in order to achieve its goals, even if it has no guarantees.