October, 2002

Military Balance in the Middle East post-11 September

General Mahmoud Khalil

The consequences of the events of 11 September 2001 and the continuation of the US campaign against terrorism underscore the strategic alliance between the United States and Israel. Washington seeks to enhance Israel’s qualitative and quantitative supremacy over the other countries of the region as the maintenance of Israeli security means maintenance of US security. US policy has thus been marked with double standards regarding issues of armament in the Middle East. While the nuclear capabilities of Israel are totally overlooked, the United States considers Iraq and Iran, in addition to North Korea, as the ‘axis of evil’ for their endeavours to possess weapons of mass destruction.

Israel has used the events of 11 September to its advantage, taking the opportunity to destroy most of the infrastructure of the Palestinian Authority on the grounds that it is a terrorist organisation. Israel has also been able to affirm its military supremacy over the other countries of the region in various ways:

- Launching, with US assistance, the Ofek-5 spy satellite that enables it to monitor activity in Iraq, direct preventive attacks against Syria and Libya, and help allies such as India and Turkey by supplying them with data. The satellite constitutes a major threat to security in the Arab world, adding to the comprehensive space reconnaissance system owned by Israel, through which it can implement espionage missions, take satellite images and acquire information about Arab countries, including strategic data.

- Enhancing military cooperation, training and joint manoeuvres with the United States. Washington plans to supply Israel with an advanced missile detection system that will enable Israel to easily detect ballistic missile attacks against it.

- Signing a memorandum of understanding with the United States by which Washington pledges to provide long-term aid to Israel.

- Maintaining the option of nuclear deterrence and developing it to deter the Arabs against implementing any strategic threats that jeopardise its existence.

In the Arab countries, however, there has not been any significant military development since 11 September 2001, with the exception of the signing of several arms deals with Western countries, and some joint manoeuvres with neighbouring countries, as occurred between Iran and the Gulf countries.

This clear imbalance of power in the favour of Israel requires the Arabs to set a firm strategy to rectify the situation. This strategy should prioritise nuclear technology and scientific and technological research, and aim to make full use of Arabs with relevant skills living in the United States and the countries of the European Union.