January, 2001

Military Balance in the Middle East
-The CSIS 2000 Report-

Dr. Abdel-Rahman Roshdi Al-Hawari

The annual report of the Centre for Strategic & International Studies -CSIS- for 2000, about the military balance in the Middle East, includes a survey and comparative analysis of the conventional military forces and the weapons of mass destruction in the region. According to the report, the Middle East region has the highest military expenditure and potential.


Within the region, Israel has the highest military expenditure. Compared to its immediate neighbors, Israel's military expenditure is equivalent to 120 per cent of their expenditure. Military expenditure in the Gulf countries represents 12 per cent of the Gulf countries national expenditure and 70 per cent of total Arab military expenditure.


According to the report, Arab countries own more conventional weapons than Israel, yet this constitutes no threat to the latter, which uses this as a pretext to claim more foreign aid. The report examines the spread of weapons of mass destruction in the Middle East, the alternatives to their usage and the disarmament issue. With regard to nuclear weapons, Israel definitely monopolizes nuclear weapons in the region and also possesses a sizeable chemical and biological arsenal.


The report sees that Iraq still constitutes a source of jeopardy to the Gulf countries, due to its ability to develop biological and chemical weapons should the ban on this be lifted. According to the report, Iran owns chemical weapons and might also have biological ones.


Comparing Israel with the Arab countries, Israel uses joint weaponry to execute its combat missions as well as simulation training systems. It also makes use of advanced satellite technology to carry out missions of reconnaissance and orientation. Arab countries, on the other hand, still depend on old training and armament systems and suffer from a centralized leadership, which lacks a sense of initiative. The deteriorating situation in the Arab world is primarily due to the full control of political leaderships over the armed forces.