January, 2001

The Effect of the Al-Aqsa Intifada on the Arab-Israeli Conflict

Gamal Abdel-Gawad

In spite of the acute imbalance of power between Israel and the Palestinians, the Al-Aqsa Intifada -uprising- has revealed that the Palestinians still have the alternative of resistance. Although confrontations between the two sides have been marked by strong violence, both sides have adhered to the limits set out in the Oslo accord; acting within a framework of mutual acknowledgement and coexistence.
The Palestinians have not relinquished the principles of coexistence agreed in Oslo in spite of the strong waves of radical opinion that have surfaced at popular level, which called at times for a comprehensive review of the settlement process. And Israel, for its part, has not re-seized the Palestinians territories freed by the Oslo accord; confining itself to military attacks within the boundaries of the Palestinian self-rule territories. This all makes the conflict seem as if it were a disagreement over borders between two independent countries.


Israelis regarded the first intifada as an external event, which took place in the occupied territories. However, this is not the case with the Al-Aqsa Intifada, which has spilled over to Palestinians inside Israel. This unprecedented spread has left Israeli society shocked. This has been reflected by the increase in the activities of many fanatical and right-wing Israeli groups inside the country.


Recent developments have shown both the Arabs and Israel that the gap between internal and foreign affairs within the Middle East is not wide and that the prosperity of the region is not possible without a secure and stable environment. Without settling the Palestinian issue in a fair way, Israel will never manage to attain the goals of a large part of its citizens to build a democratic and modern state and society. As long as there is a dichotomy between the military power and standard of living in Israel, on one hand, and other countries in the region, on the other, Israel will never enjoy peace.


The Al-Aqsa Intifada has made clear to all Arab countries that they must play an active role in the Palestinian issue - regardless of their internal processes of modernization - and that declarations of stances and principles will not suffice without serious efforts to find a fair and acceptable solution to the problem. It has also made clear the dangers of Arab leaders abusing the Palestinian issue in order to manipulate local public opinion and achieve short-term gains to make up for their failure in other areas.


Neither Barak nor Arafat can be considered to be in a better position now than they were before the Al-Aqsa Intifada. The situation has spiraled out of control as a result of Ariel Sharon's endeavors to impose certain conditions on Israeli society. While four years ago, the radical Palestinian opposition managed to hamper the peace process, now it is the turn of the Israeli right, thus leaving the chances of settlement harder than ever.


Ironically enough, while both parties are sparing no effort to push the other to offer more concessions at the negotiating table, both leaderships, in light of their perceived intransigence of the other, have been left in situations where they are unable to do so. The confrontation over the last three months has made it very hard for an agreement to be reached, and while the latest intifada has raised the ceiling of Palestinian demands, Israeli readiness to accept them has decreased.


For a settlement to be reached, both leaderships have to effect change in their respective internal environments. The intifada has revealed the presence of a number of Palestinian political powers that enjoy extensive popularity. The Palestinian Authority thus needs to restore its control over the political arena, bringing in line those organizations that gained greater momentum as a result of the continuous confrontations and the similarity between their discourse and the official one. More radical organizations, such as Hamas and Jihad, were also given a wide space in which to work as a result of the security measures implemented by the Palestinian Authority.


Israel, for its part, seems to be in urgent need of a new political leadership capable of persuading the Israeli public of the benefits of peace. This leadership also needs to be able to establish a strong and coherent ruling coalition to curb the fluctuation of Israeli public opinion between right- and left-wing approaches to the settlement process.