January, 2001

The Political Sociology of the Oil Crisis

Khaled Abdel-Azim

According to sociological theories, the current oil crisis cannot be explained solely on the basis of the relationship between price and supply and demand. Such an interpretation is both limited and flawed, using methods from the 19th century to analyze an international crisis in the 21st century. The sociological approach offers a much broader approach to analysis of the oil crisis, taking into consideration international developments.


The price of strategic products today is no longer dependent only on supply and demand, but rather on a new variable brought about by consistently changing and interrelated international conditions. This new variable was termed by the French school of international political sociology as l'Espace Public or public space. It refers to the non-governmental and unofficial arena of influence produced by the media and civil society organizations. The limits of the media and civil society organizations, which in the past were local, have now extended across borders, partly as a result of the stability achieved in the European Union and with the opening of borders for labor and capital.


During the third quarter of 2000, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries -OPEC- raised its production levels three times, though the price of oil increased rather than decreased. This indicates that the economic law of supply and demand is not the only factor involved in price determination. The reason for this increase in price was the extensive protest by truck drivers in Europe. They collectively held siege to oil refineries across the continent as a means of expressing their objection to the high taxes imposed on oil and fuel that in turn push up the price of oil products.


As a result of this protest, work was halted in the refineries, preventing local distributors from transferring refined oil to petrol stations and leading to wide-scale panic buying by consumers. This caused considerable disturbance to the industry's normal process, aggravated further by petrol stations running out of petrol. In these circumstances, no increase in crude oil supply by OPEC would have caused any change in prices, as the normal circle of oil takes 45-90 days from refining to the end of distribution and the end-user deals only with refined oil.
This non-governmental pressure brought about extensive sociological consequences, canceling, even if only temporarily, the economic impact that would normally have resulted from an increase in supply by OPEC. The crisis revealed that non-governmental influence is no longer controlled by general public opinion; it has extended to the international mobilization of coercive civil action against the state.


The actions of the European civil society organizations involved, however, did not run counter to the penal codes of their governments; and as there was no direct harm caused to individuals or property, the governments of Europe were unable to respond effectively.
There is thus no doubt that unofficial and non-governmental influence now plays an indisputable role in the pricing of oil, as well as other strategic products.