January, 2002

The Regional Position of a Future Palestinian State

Dr. Nagi Sadeq Sharab

The Oslo-Madrid formula for peaceful settlement crystallised the concept of the Palestinian state as a political and geographic fait accompli in the Middle East on a part of the historic land of Palestine. The establishment of such a state in the future would have a direct effect on neighbouring countries and the Arab system as a whole, as well as on more comprehensive regional interactions that might extend to include Israel.

The Arab system never acknowledged the demise of the Palestinian entity, yet it has not shown any tangible readiness to welcome this entity that will, by virtue of the peace process, turn into a state. Such a state would certainly differ in its nature and accompanying interactions from the previous status of the Palestine Liberation Organisation (PLO). Palestinian persistence to obtain independence and the backing of the Arab countries would enable the Palestinians to overcome the obstacles set by Israel to impede the establishment of a Palestinian state, whether in treaties or in reality.

Some believe that the Palestinian experience might follow the lead of liberation movements such as the Algerian one, which succeeded in removing the Evian agreement. This was obvious in the Camp David II negotiations, where the Palestinian negotiator rejected the Israeli concept of settlement and became engaged with the Palestinian people in an intifada, or uprising, to change the status quo imposed coercively by Israel.

Completion of the pending stages of settlement on the Palestinian-Israeli track would mean the exclusion of another power, beside Egypt and Jordan, from confrontation with Israel. The establishment of a Palestinian state in a regional environment of reconciliation or settlement on the Lebanese and Syrian tracks would signal the end of confrontation, with its accepted political and military implications, for the countries bordering Israel.

Following the Oslo agreement, political observers started to put forth the concept of Middle Eastern cooperation and raised numerous ideas for Arab cooperation with Israel on the assumption that peace had become a strategic alternative. Yet considering the developments that impeded the course of settlement on the Palestinian, Lebanese and Syrian tracks, the concept of such cooperation seems illusionary, or at least early.

Still, preliminary Palestinian-Israeli agreements stipulated the importance of Middle Eastern regional cooperation. This marks a negative start for the emerging Palestinian state as it would assume the role of a bridge for Israel towards the Arab world. Furthermore, formulas of Palestinian-Israeli cooperation are depressing for the Arab world, which would gain nothing from the establishment of a small Palestinian state shackled by Israel on all levels, in return for the establishment of a greater Israel.

The establishment of a Palestinian state with contractual commitments to Israel would mean legal and political problems for this state. Palestine would be an authentic member of the Arab system yet the restrictions of these commitments would bring about security, military and economic contradictions. The Palestinian-Israeli peace process would not let Israel enjoy a distinguished position on the Arab or regional levels as the Arabs totally reject the idea of turning the Arab system into an inefficient entity dominated by Israel.

The establishment of a Palestinian state would have intellectual and ideological consequences. Over the course of Arab-Israeli conflict, a number of perceptions and views have been formulated about Zionist ideology and Israe's policy of settlement-building, through education and political and media discourse. It is illogical to assume that the Arabs would be able to substitute these conceptions immediately after the establishment of a Palestinian state. Israel, moreover, will not give up its policy of settlement-building as this would mean surrendering an important part of its identity. The full recognition of Israel by Palestinians would also damage integration within the Arab system. Palestinian acceptance of Israel's existence would weaken the force of the comprehensive regional rejection and call into question the credibility of the Arab system.

Several trends within the Arab system might not accept the outcome of Arab-Israeli settlement, including the establishment of a Palestinian state on a limited part of Palestine. They consider the establishment of such a state contrary to the concept of total Arab liberation from Zionism, which has led them to clash with the systems that have already reached settlement.

As a result, it is expected that the international powers involved in the settlement process, most of which are Western, will try to influence intellectual approaches to the settlement. They are also expected to try to influence the regional parties that support settlement, and the form of a Palestinian state itself, in a way that isolates those powers which reject or oppose the process. As for Israel and its allies, it is not enough to eliminate rejection on the official level alone; change should extend to ideologies, thought and perceptions on the level of the average Arab in the street.