January, 2002

Indian-Pakistani Relations since 11 September

Tareq Adel Al-Sheikh

The 11 September attacks against the United States and the consequent US engagement in a war against the Taliban movement and the Al-Qaida group have had consequences around the world. Indian-Pakistani relations have been directly affected, especially with the lifting of sanctions imposed upon both countries. Decisionmakers in both India and Pakistan have since made serious amendments to their internal and foreign policies, which include changes to the way they use foreign-policy tools.

In the period before 11 September, Indian-Pakistani relations passed through two stages. Following events in Cargil in 1999, foreign-policy tools in both countries were used in a negative way. The Agra Summit, however, despite the tensions that overshadowed it, brought some hope of opening channels of communication between them. The concerned parties were hopeful of positive developments with a further meeting scheduled to take place later on the fringe of UN General Assembly meetings in New York. Yet the events of 11 September took over the international agenda.

As a reaction to international interaction and stances following the events of 11 September, foreign policy in India and Pakistan has undergone various changes in light of the following developments:

- An inevitable US military presence in the Indian subcontinent and Central Asia

- Afghanistan, which is of strategic significance for both India and Pakistan, is a target of military operations by the United States and its allies

- The toppling of the Taliban movement, which enjoyed friendly relations with Pakistan, has become a common objective for many countries in the region and around the world

- The Al-Qaida group and Osama bin Laden, which had previously declared war against India, are seriously pursued worldwide

- The future of Afghanistan has become a major foreign-policy concern for both India and Pakistan - Pakistan has become geographically trapped between two regions of serious tension; Afghanistan and Kashmir

- Pakistan is facing a crisis with the increasing number of Afghan refugees inside its lands, many of whom are ethnic Pashtuns

- The fall of the Taliban has resulted in the emergence of competing local parties, some backed by India and others by Pakistan

- Both countries seek to have an ally system in Kabul

- Indian separatist groups in Kashmir have increased their activities in the light of Pakistani political and psychological aid to rival groups which India is trying to link to international terrorism. It was logical in the light of these developments that both India and Pakistan declare their support for the United States in its war against terrorism, in spite of all the threats and risks that put pressure on Pakistani decisionmakers. However, this common attitude towards the US problem was accompanied by a drop in the level of their bilateral relations.

The tension notwithstanding, Pakistan has managed to achieve some of the targets designated by Pakistani decisionmakers and India has also achieved some positive results. However, the success attained by both countries is not expected to affect either the Kashmir dilemma or their individual objectives in Afghanistan, at least in the short run.

International observers are hoping the 11th summit of the Association of South Asian Regional Cooperation will bring about positive bilateral developments. The leaders of both India and Pakistan are expected to meet during this summit to formulate a clearer vision for their relations, with the hope of providing long-awaited stability in the region.