January, 2002

Sudan and Future Balance in the African Horn

Dr. Hamdi Abdel-Rahman Hassan

Following years of tension, the United States has recently tried to improve its relations with Sudan. Since 1993, the US administration has listed Sudan as a state that harbours terrorism. This tension led to the United States bombing a pharmaceuticals factory in Khartoum which it claimed was being used to produce chemical weapons. The United States internationalised the crisis in south Sudan and compiled files listing human-rights violations more than once. Recently, however, there has been a sort of security rapprochement between the two countries. Sudan cooperated fully with US inspectors after the 11 September attacks and handed a number of documents and maps to US security officials relating to Osama bin Laden and the Al-Qaida organisation.

Sudan has recently begun to restore its regional and international position, and this was manifested in the lifting of sanctions imposed by the Security Council. The US administration halted a resolution according to which US companies involved in oil exploration in Sudan were forbidden to register in US stock markets. However, this security cooperation has not dispelled US apprehension or rebuilt confidence in the ruling regime in Khartoum. This reluctance is enhanced by pressure from congressmen and human-rights organisations relating to issues of slavery, confinement of religious and political freedoms and assistance presented to terrorists. Thus, for now, Sudan remains on the US list of countries that harbour terrorism and the Bush administration approved the extension of unilateral sanctions against the country.

Political observers envisage several scenarios for the future of Sudan and the African horn in light of the changes to the world order in the wake of 11 September.

- Some anticipate a policy of disintegration, the reformulation of old entities and the arrival of new entities in the region. Were this the case, it is anticipated that the United States would resume its support of the IGAD initiative to settle the crisis in Sudan.

- Other observers believe that a Greater African Horn region will emerge with a group of leaders supportive of the United States, which will diminish the influence of rival systems. - Alternatively, a united secular Sudan could be established in which the interests of regional and international parties are satisfied. The worst possible outcome, however, would be the continuation of the situation and regional policies as they stand.