January, 2002

Changes in US Policy towards Asia

Ayman Al-Sayyid Abdel Wahab

The events of 11 September caused an inevitable change in US foreign-policy priorities. With the launching of its campaign against terrorism and the establishment of an international coalition, the United States is endeavouring to restore its prestige and underscore its leadership of the world. This comes even at the expense of its policy of isolation and reluctance to intervene in international crises.

The involvement of most countries of the world in the US-led coalition and their direct or indirect participation in the 'war against terrorism' does not imply that there is not apprehension and scepticism from many international parties over the United States' undeclared objectives. The United States' categorisation of others' stances as either supporters or opponents has enhanced international mobilisation, with many linking this categorisation to relations and interests with the United States.

Russia and China showed their support for US action in Afghanistan from the beginning, though they expressed their objection to the building of a missile wall for the damage it might cause to security and the balance of international power in the world. China, Japan, India, Pakistan and Indonesia based their stances on their willingness to get economic and political gains that would not be available were they to have sided with the Taliban movement or the man the United States holds responsible for the 11 September attacks, Osama bin Laden.

The United States' mobilisation of international powers took place on two levels: first with its strategic partners, such as Japan, and those with which it has strong positive relations, such as Indonesia; and second, with countries not maintaining close strategic relations, such as Pakistan and China. Pakistan managed during the crisis to restore its position in US policy - a position that had been lost with the end of the Cold War and the loss of US interest in Pakistan as a shield against the Soviet bloc. The Afghan dilemma pushed the United States to adopt a more balanced policy towards both India and Pakistan with regard to their dispute over Kashmir and to minimise its bias towards India in this regard, especially with Pakistan agreeing to assume an active role in the US-led international coalition.

India's readiness to assume an active role in the international coalition constituted a card of pressure in the hands of the United States against Pakistan. Closer US-Indian relations would constitute a real threat to Pakistan's interests and role in the region, and significantly effect its position with regard to Kashmir. With China too, the US administration changed tack, taking a milder stance on a number of controversial issues with Beijing, including the Chinese attitude to Taiwan, human rights, and the enhancement of cooperation to attain peace in the Korean peninsula and avoid the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction. The United States' strong relations with Japan did not undergo any amendments as both countries already enjoy close ties that are at the level of a coalition in many areas. Accordingly, Japan was at the forefront of the countries supporting the US stance and took procedures to further it, including lifting economic sanctions imposed against India and Pakistan.

The Indonesian position stood midway between the need to back the US position and the need to soothe Islamic groups. Indonesia in this regard provided what can be seen as negative support for the US campaign, backing the US coalition yet at the same time apprehensive of the consequences, especially as some western circles base the conflict on theological grounds. Regardless of its inability to participate in military action, Indonesia acted on the internal level to contain the angry masses. The events of 11 September and the consequent military campaign against Afghanistan brought about a number of new determinants that will effect US strategy in Central Asia, and which will influence to a great extent the nature of a US presence in post-Taliban Afghanistan. Chief among these factors are:

- The stances of the countries surrounding Afghanistan
- The maintaining of a balance of power between Afghan parties
- The Kashmir issue as the focus of dispute between India and Pakistan
- China's participation in the international alliance against terrorism

It should be taken into consideration, however, that a direct US military presence in Afghanistan would not constitute a US strategy dependent on the power and polarisation of Afghan parties and regional allies.